Duval County and Clay County Florida Real Estate Topics

July 5th, 2016 4:07 PM
 The first half of 2016 is now behind us, so I wanted to take a quick look at trends over the last six months.  Buyer demand on Fleming Island was strong, but the shortage of listings remains.    

About 180 non-distressed, closed MLS sales on Fleming Island were reviewed and a scatter chart showing the data is available by clicking the link.  
six months-nd-no nav-det.pdf
The median sale price of the sample was just over $260,000, median living area 2,308 SF, median price per square foot $116.41, median age 16 years, and median days on market 46.

The median sale price was up nearly 8% during the first half of 2016, compared to the same period in 2015.  This is good news since sale price in 2015 was flat.    

The number of closed sales during the first six months of 2016 was down about 7.1% compared to the same period in 2015.  The number of homes for sale is also lower than the same period in 2015 and the current inventory represents 4.1 months of supply according to InfoSparks market data provided by MLS.  

Overall, there is a shortage of listings, but we are reaching an over supply of listings over $350,000.  Sale prices increased over the last six months and is above the same period in 2015.  

Interests rates remain low, so the market could continue to improve in the second half of the year, but there are economic and political headwinds that could impact the market.  


January 26th, 2016 11:34 AM
A recent post illustrated how sale prices were mostly flat in Fleming Island in 2015. A study using non-distressed MLS sales in Orange Park revealed a similar pattern.  Nearly 1,300 closed sales in Orange Park are shown on the scatter chart below and the median sale price for the sample was $170,000 and median living area was 1,868 square feet (SF). The median age of the sample was 15 years and the median days on market (DOM) was 48.   

Nearly 50% (46.5%) of the sales were in the Oakleaf Plantation area (MLS 139), where the median sale price was $214,600, median size 2,206 SF, median age two years, median DOM 67.   This market segment was mostly driven by new construction as Oakleaf Plantation continues to develop.  

The median sale price for the rest of Orange Park (excluding MLS 139) was $147,500, median size 1,716 SF, median age 32 years, and DOM 41.  Overall, the trend line for this market segment was only slightly improved in 2015.

The number of sales was strong in 2015 and demand seems to remain high.  Interest rates remain low, but the Federal Reserve (FED's) is indicating plans for 3-4 rate hikes in 2016. Economic conditions could  slow the FED'S 2016 plans, resulting in continued low mortgage rates.  

Posted by Scott A. Austin on January 26th, 2016 11:34 AMLeave a Comment

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January 21st, 2016 9:16 AM
Over 300 non-distressed, 2015 sales on Fleming Island, were recently analyzed.  I used those between $150,000 to $500,000 to eliminate outiers and concentrated on those in zip code 32003, actually on Fleming Island.  

A scatter chart showing 2015 sale trends illustrates a relatively flat market.  The median sale price for this sample was $247,000, with a median living area of 2,308 SF, 15 year median age, and median days on market was 46.

Eagle Harbor sale prices were nearly flat over the last year, while Fleming Island Plantation declined. Pace Island was mostly unchanged, and the other Fleming Island sale prices were up over the last 12 months.




Posted by Scott A. Austin on January 21st, 2016 9:16 AMLeave a Comment

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Eagle Harbor continues to dominate the Fleming Island market with total number of non-distressed, detached home sales with 112 closed over the last 12 months.  Fleming Island Plantation is a close second with 94 closed sales.  Pace Island had only 24 closed sales, but sale prices increased at a faster rate than the other larger communities.

Absorption increased over the last 90 days, but supply remains low at about 140 active units, or about three months supply.  A balanced market is generally considered around six months supply. 

The shortage could have a positive impact on existing sales during the second half of the year. 

Dream Finders will add new residential units to Fleming Island during the last quarter of 2015 and early 2016.   

The chart below uses the median statistic for each category to illustrate trends over the last year.  For example, the median sale price in Eagle Harbor was $290,000, median living area (SF) was 2,527, median price per square foot was $112.86.            

Eagle Harbor $  290,000 2527 $  112.86 200148


 $  275,000 2501 $  108.66 200453
Pace Island $  276,000 2453 $  114.71 199536
Other Fleming $  220,500 2038 $  108.27 199743


Posted in:Sale Trends
Posted by Scott A. Austin on July 9th, 2015 10:24 AMLeave a Comment

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While recently on inspection I noticed a loud noise near the air compressor. A small snake was stuck and the fan was hitting him.  I told the owner about it and he said he noticed the loud noise last night and found the snake just before I got there for my appraisal inspection. 

You just never know what you will see in the real estate business.   

Posted in:General
Posted by Scott A. Austin on July 11th, 2014 1:03 PMLeave a Comment

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May 26th, 2014 10:54 AM
Me·mo·ri·al Day
  1. a day on which those who died in active military service are remembered, traditionally observed on May 30 but now officially observed on the last Monday in May.
  2. Source:  Google Search

Posted in:General
Posted by Scott A. Austin on May 26th, 2014 10:54 AMLeave a Comment

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I recently reviewed MLS sales on Fleming Island from mid-April 2013 to the same period in 2014 and divided the sales into four groups: Eagle Harbor, Fleming Island Plantation (FIP), Pace Island, and other, which includes all sales that are not in one of the three communities mentioned earlier.  The search focused on non-distressed, detached sales and those not backing to a navigable waterway. 

The chart below illustrates the median sale price and living area for each group and shows that Eagle Harbor continues to lead Fleming Island in terms of median sale price. 

Eagle Harbor also dominated with the number of closed sales at 110; FIP 48; Pace Island 20; and other 78. 


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Posted by Scott A. Austin on May 14th, 2014 5:25 PMLeave a Comment

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Northeast Florida Association of Realtors (NEFAR) produces a monthly market report and the most recent month is March 2014.   You can review that report in it's entirety here:  http://www.nefar.com/filebin/pdbdb/33/838_33.pdf.

There are many pages in this report, but Fleming Island statistics are on page 31.  The year to date trend from January 2014-March 2014 shows the median sale price increased 24.3% ($200,000 to $248,500), compared to the same period last year.  The number of new listings is up 20.2% (178 to 214) compared to the same period last year, while the number of closed sales fell 6.9% (101 to 94). 

The NEFAR report illustrates a trend experienced across the country.  Sale prices and number of listings are increasing while absorption, or number of closed sales is declining.  This is particularly interesting because sales usually  increase in March and April. 

The market is behaving differently this year.  Some suggest the slow start was due to unusually cold weather while others indicate the slight increase in the interests rates is to blame.  Interest rates, however, are around 4.5 percent, up just over one percentage point since March 2013.   

Absorption and inventory levels have become two very important criteria to watch in 2014 as sellers enter the market with higher expectations. Six months of supply (listings) is generally considered a balanced market. 

During the period from April to October 2013 the inventory level was less than two months supply with 40 active listings and about 25.83 units sold per month (40/25.83=1.55 months supply).  From October 2013 to January 2014 it was up to 3.9 months supply as inventory increased and absorption declined (67 listings/17 average monthly absorption = 3.94 months supply).  Over the last 90 days the supply increased to 6.86 months and resulted from an increase in the number of listings and a decline in average absorption (112 listings/16.33 absorption = 6.86 months supply).    


The chart above shows trends over the last 12 months for non-distressed, detached homes in Fleming Island that are not fronting a navigable water way like the St. Johns River, Drs. Lake, creeks, or canals. 

My next post will discuss the Fleming Island data in a little more detail by analyzing Eagle Harbor, Pace Island, Fleming Island Plantation and all others separately. Eagle Harbor accounted for over 40% of the sales and had the highest median price per square foot over the last 12 months.     

nefar market report 3-2014.pdf  



Posted in:General
Posted by Scott A. Austin on April 28th, 2014 9:32 AMLeave a Comment

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There are orange signs in front of wooded lots on Town Center Boulevard, near the new Navy Federal Credit Union, and along the east side of US 17 between Bald Eagle and Hibernia. 

The signs are part of a public notice required by Clay County Planning Department to alert local residents of a zoning change request for the property.  In this case, East West Partners, the developer of Eagle Harbor, is seeking to change the allowable uses of the property to include residential.  The large parcel on Town Center is currently zoned for light industrial, consistent with the flex buildings across the street and adjacent to the library.  Those along US 17 are currently slated for office use.  Fleming Island already has many vacant commercial buildings and land and it is not likely that demand will increase in the foreseeable future to absorb the current inventory.   

East West is seeking to change the zoning to allow residential.  Since residential lots are mostly absorbed, the demand for new homes in Fleming Island could be relatively strong.   

The link to the 43-page document is listed below if anyone is interested in getting more detailed information.  The document includes proposed plats for each parcel. 


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Posted by Scott A. Austin on April 24th, 2014 1:22 PMLeave a Comment

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The last post focused on analyzing market trends in Fleming Island Plantation (FIP), west of US 17.  We looked at how the annualized, average sale price changed based on the data used for the analysis.  We compared detached, attached, and new construction.  It is also important to understand how distressed inventory impacts a market.    

Northeast Florida MLS provides three ways to segregate the distressed and non-distressed activity, so it is a little difficult to determine the exact number of distressed units.  We can usually account for most with only a few modified searches. 

The following chart illustrates the importance of understanding how distressed units impact a market.  The blue columns represent the median sale price for each group of detached sales in Fleming Island Plantation.  The red line represents the median price per square foot for each group. 

The first column is all existing detached homes in FIP, column two is non-distressed activity, column three is bank-owned sales (REO) and Column four is short sales. 

The median sale price is usually the first statistic I review for each group, but as column four illustrates, it can be misleading.  If only the median sale price was used, a reader might conclude that short sales are performing better than non-distressed sales.

Digging a little deeper into the data we find that the short sales represented a relatively small number of the total sales (4)  and the average living area of the short sales was over 3,000 SF, compared to around 2,450 SF for REO, and about 2,630 SF for non-distressed sales. 

Using the median price per square foot, we see that non-distressed sales performed better and the REO and short sales sold over $10 per square foot lower.  

Separating new construction from existing sales is often helpful as well, but there is only one new development currently underway in FIP and only a few closed sales at this time. 

A large developer is seeking a zoning change on some vacant land around Fleming Island and if they are successful, we could see more residential rooftops in the near future.  More on that subject next time. 

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Posted by Scott A. Austin on April 19th, 2014 1:21 PMLeave a Comment

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